2012 Presidential Campaign Blog

Looking At The 2012 Republican Presidential Field For November 2010

Going deep on the Republicans

Our monthly look at the 2012 Republican Presidential field for November finds the same thing it it does every month- a very close four way race. This time around it's Sarah Palin at 21%, Newt Gingrich at 19%, Mitt Romney at 18%, and Mike Huckabee at 16%. Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty lead the second tier with 5% each, followed by John Thune at 3% and Mitch Daniels at 2%.

More interesting is something a little different we did this month, asking likely primary voters who their second choices would be. Here's what we found:

-If Newt Gingrich doesn't run the biggest beneficiary would be Mike Huckabee. 31% of Gingrich supporters say Huck is their second choice, followed by 27% who say it's Mitt Romney and 19% who say it's Sarah Palin.

-If Mike Huckabee doesn't run the biggest beneficiary would be Sarah Palin. 34% of Huckabee supporters say Palin is the second choice, with Gingrich and Romney well back at 19% and 17% respectively.

-If Sarah Palin doesn't run the biggest beneficiary would be Mike Huckabee. 24% of Palin supporters say he is their second choice, followed by 20% who say Gingrich and 12% who say Romney.

-If Mitt Romney doesn't run the biggest beneficiary, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, would be Sarah Palin. 27% of Romney supporters say she is their second choice, followed by 23% who say Huckabee and 14% who say Gingrich.

It should be noted on all of these numbers that the margin of error is relatively high.

The other interesting finding on this poll is that even voters who currently support one candidate in the GOP field tend to view the other ones favorably as well:

-Huckabee voters give Palin a 64/27 favorability, Gingrich a 53/23 one, and Romney a 59/26 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +33.

-Palin voters give Huckabee a 52/19 favorability, Gingrich a 42/38 one, and Romney a 40/35 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +14.

-Gingrich voters give Huckabee a 78/11 favorability, Palin a 67/14 one, and Romney a 61/26 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +52.

-Romney voters give Huckabee a 46/25 favorability, Palin a 46/36 one, and Gingrich a 41/42 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +10.

The Gingrich and Huckabee voters are going to be fine if someone else gets nominated. They're pretty happy with all the other candidates. The Romney folks perhaps are a greater concern for Republicans because some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated. The Palin folks aren't all that big on the other candidates either- the chances of them voting for Obama seem quite slim but might they sit home or throw some of their votes to a conservative third party candidate if Romney wins the nomination? All of those things will be interesting to watch.

Analysis: The three dynamics of the 2012 NH Primary as it stands today » WMUR Political Scoop

“Four years ago the New Hampshire primary was well under way. A number of campaigns already had hefty national staffs and began to plot how their official announcement for president would work.” by James Pindell

Analysis: The three dynamics of the 2012 NH Primary as it stands today » WMUR Political Scoop

Obama's 2012 campaign: Way outside the Beltway? - The Washington Post

“When President Obama kicks off his reelection campaign sometime in the next few months, senior advisers say, it is virtually certain that his headquarters will be located in Chicago. But should it be?” By Anne E. Kornblut

Obama's 2012 campaign: Way outside the Beltway?

A Thanksgiving Guide to the 2012 Republican Field - NYTimes.com

“..here’s a quick sketch of where we stand in the Republican presidential nomination campaign (in no particular order).” by Michael D. Shear

A Thanksgiving Guide to the 2012 Republican Field - NYTimes.com

George W. Bush Presidential Center Groundbreaking Video

CPAC 2011 To Feature Senator Rick Santorum #cpac11

CPAC 2011 To Feature Senator Rick Santorum

The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a project of the American Conservative Union Foundation is pleased to announce that former Senator Rick Santorum will address the event to be held in February 10-12 in Washington D.C.  Senator Santorum will speak on Thursday, February 10 at 2 p.m.

ACU and CPAC Chairman David Keene said, “Rick Santorum’s influence on the conservative movement didn’t end when he left the Senate.  He remains one of the nation’s most articulate and thoughtful champions of family values and western civilization and anyone who believes that he won’t return to public service underestimates his popularity, his commitment and the need for spokesmen and elected officials that can speak as articulately as Rick on issues of vital concern to all conservatives.”

Rick Santorum To Make 7th Trip To New Hampshire

Rick Santorum to Make 7th Trip to New Hampshire

Washington, DC – Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) will visit New Hampshire on November 29 and 30, 2010 for several events and meetings.  A list of the open press events are below:

Monday, November 29, 2010:

12:15 PM – Former Senator Santorum will be the keynote speaker at the Manchester Rotary luncheon. 

Location:
Fratello's Restaurant
155 Dow Street
Manchester, NH 03101-1299

7:00 PM – Former Senator Santorum will speak to a gathering of the Goffstown-Weare Republican Committee.

Location:
Goffstown Parks and Recreation Building
155 Mast Road
Goffstown, NH 03045

Tuesday, November 30, 2010:

7:30 AM – Former Senator Santorum will be the keynote speaker at the Goffstown Rotary Club’s breakfast.

Location:
Saint Anselm College
Coffee Shop and Pub (Building #7 on this map http://www.anselm.edu/Documents/campus-map.pdf)
100 Saint Anselm Drive
Manchester, NH 03102

Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; President Tied With Romney, Huckabee But Leads Palin

Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; President Tied With Romney, Huckabee But Leads Palin
 
President Barack Obama does not deserve a second term, American voters say 49 - 43 percent, and he is in a statistical dead heat with possible Republican challengers Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. President Obama leads Sarah Palin 48 - 40 percent.
 
Romney, Huckabee, Palin and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are bunched together when Republican voters are asked who they prefer for the GOP's 2012 presidential nomination, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds.
 
Democratic voters say 64 - 27 percent they do not want anyone to challenge President Obama for their party's nomination in 2012.
 
"The Democratic base remains squarely behind President Barack Obama when it comes to his re-election, but his weakness among independent voters at this point makes his 2012 election prospects uncertain," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
 
"The demographic splits in the electorate when voters are asked whether the president deserves a second term is a roadmap for his re-election strategists on how they need to focus their appeal. Only 39 percent of men, 34 percent of whites, 35 percent of political independents and 38 percent of those over age 35 think he deserves four more years in the Oval Office."

In trial heats for 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Romney receives 45 percent to 44 percent for Obama, while the president gets 46 percent to 44 percent for Mr. Huckabee. Matched against Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a virtual unknown to most voters, the president leads 45 - 36 percent.

"At this point, former Alaska Gov. Palin runs the worst against President Obama. Daniels is essentially a generic Republican because of his anonymity to most voters. Obama only gets 45 percent against him while he gets 48 percent against Ms. Palin," said Brown. "She is very unpopular among independents and although she recently said she thought she could defeat Obama, the data does not now necessarily support that assertion."

"Unlike Daniels, who is a political unknown to most Americans, virtually all voters have formed an opinion about Palin and that opinion is not encouraging for her candidacy."
 
Ms. Palin is viewed the most negatively by the American people of the possible Republican candidates in 2012. She is viewed unfavorable by 51 percent of voters and favorably by 36 percent. Among independents, the key swing voting bloc, she has a negative 54 - 33 percent favorability rating.
 
Huckabee gets a 41 - 25 percent favorability rating and Romney gets a 38 - 26 percent score. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets a negative 30 - 43 percent score.
 
Obama gets a 48 - 48 percent split overall, with a negative 43 - 52 percent among independent voters.
 
In a mythical Republican primary Ms. Palin gets 19 percent, including 25 percent of GOP women, followed by Romney with 18 percent, Huckabee at 17 percent, Gingrich at 15 percent, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 6 percent and Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Sen. John Thune of South Dakota at 2 percent each.

"The best thing Obama has going for him when it comes to his re-election may be that at this point the Republicans don't have a candidate who is both nationally well-known and well- liked by a majority of voters," said Brown.

2012 Republican Presidential Candidates: ABC News Guidebook - ABC News

ABC News' Look at Top GOP Presidential Hopefuls and Their Chances of Winning Nomination By AMY WALTER and DEVIN DWYER

2012 Republican Presidential Candidates: ABC News Guidebook - ABC News

United States Mint Introduces New Presidential $1 Coin At President Lincoln’s Cottage In Nation’s Capital

United States Mint Introduces New Presidential $1 Coin at President Lincoln’s Cottage in Nation’s Capital
Abraham Lincoln Presidential $1 Coin Launches on Anniversary of Gettysburg Address
 
WASHINGTON - The United States Mint launched a new Presidential $1 Coin honoring Abraham Lincoln today, the 147th anniversary of his Gettysburg Address. United States Mint Director Ed Moy introduced the new coin during a ceremony at President Lincoln's Cottage on the grounds of the Armed Forces Retirement Home in Washington, D.C. Erin Carlson Mast, director of President Lincoln's Cottage, was on hand to celebrate the coin's release. After the ceremony, children 18 years old and younger received an Abraham Lincoln Presidential $1 Coin, and adults exchanged their currency for 25-coin rolls of the new coin.

"Connecting America through Coins, the United States Mint presents the long-awaited Presidential $1 Coin honoring Abraham Lincoln," said Director Moy at the ceremony, "in the same month that Lincoln won election 150 years ago and became the 16th President of the United States."

Abraham Lincoln, the 16th President, was born February 12, 1809, near Hodgenville, Kentucky, into a poor frontier family. A self-taught lawyer, he also served in the Illinois legislature and the U.S. House of Representatives. In 1858, while campaigning for a seat in the U.S. Senate, Lincoln engaged incumbent Stephen A. Douglas in a series of debates over slavery. Though he lost the election, Lincoln's eloquence won him national attention, and in 1860, he received the Republican presidential nomination. Lincoln became President of the United States in 1861 as the Nation descended into the Civil War.

On April 14, 1865-only a few weeks into his second administration and just five days after the Civil War ended-Lincoln was shot by Southern sympathizer John Wilkes Booth. Lincoln died the next morning in Washington, D.C.

The Presidential $1 Coin Act of 2005 (Public Law 109-145) directs the United States Mint to issue four $1 coins each year to honor our Nation's Presidents in the order in which they served in office. The Abraham Lincoln Presidential $1 Coin is the 16th release in the Presidential $1 Coin Program.

The Abraham Lincoln Presidential $1 Coin entered into circulation November 18. Numismatic rolls containing the new coin also are available for purchase at the United States Mint's Web site, http://www.usmint.gov/catalog, or by calling 1-800-USA-MINT (872-6468). Hearing- and speech-impaired customers with TTY equipment may order by calling 1-888-321-MINT (6468). A fee of $4.95 will be added to all domestic orders for shipping and handling.

President Lincoln's Cottage is the most significant site associated with Abraham Lincoln's presidency after the White House. President Lincoln lived there for one quarter of his presidency and was living there when he drafted the Emancipation Proclamation and deliberated critical issues of the Civil War. The National Trust for Historic Preservation opened the cottage to the public in 2008 after a seven-year restoration. Today, it offers intimate guided tours, providing an in-depth, media-enhanced experience highlighting Lincoln's ideas and actions through historical images and voices. For more information about the cottage, go to http://www.lincolncottage.org. To learn more about the National Trust for Historic Preservation, visit http://www.preservationnation.org/.