Clarus Poll: Romney Leads GOP 2012 Field, Gains Against Obama
WASHINGTON, March 24 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new nonpartisan nationwide poll shows that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is currently the strongest GOP presidential candidate for the 2012 election. The poll also shows President Obama leading all potential Republican candidates, but by narrower margins than he did last August.
The poll was conducted March 17-20, 2010 by Clarus Research Group, a Washington, D.C.-based polling firm, using live telephone interviewers. It was based on a representative nationwide sample of 1,050 U.S. registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey was not sponsored or paid for by any client, candidate or political party.
OBAMA RE-ELECTION
In a head-to-head match-up, Obama leads Romney 45 percent to 41 percent with 14 percent undecided. Though still behind the incumbent, Romney has strengthened his position since last August when the Clarus Poll showed Obama leading him by a 47-38 percent.
"Romney is the early polling frontrunner for the Republican nomination," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus. "He has improved his standing against Obama and runs first among Republicans for the 2012 presidential nomination."
In the poll, Obama leads former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin 52 percent to 34 percent, close to the 53 percent to 34 percent lead he posted against her in August.
"Though he continues to top all the potential GOP candidates surveyed, President Obama captures more than 50 percent of the vote only against Palin in the latest poll," said Faucheux.
In presidential trial heats, Obama leads former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 47 percent to 39 percent, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 48 percent to 36 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 49 percent to 37 percent.
"Gingrich improved his standing since the August poll when he was trailing Obama by 18 points. He's narrowed the gap to 12 points," said Faucheux. "Relative to Obama, Huckabee and Palin experienced only minimal improvement since August."
GOP NOMINATION
Romney leads the potential GOP nomination field among Republican voters. Results were: Romney 29 percent, Huckabee 19 percent, Palin 18 percent, Gingrich 13 percent, Jeb Bush 8 percent, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels 1 percent, and South Dakota Sen. John Thune 1 percent. Two percent volunteered candidates who were not named in the survey's questionnaire, and 9 percent were undecided.
"Some pundits believe that the health care reforms Romney supported in Massachusetts as governor could hurt him among Republicans now that Obama's health care package has become law," said Faucheux. "It remains to be seen whether this attack will gain traction against Romney's nomination prospects." Interviewing for the poll was completed the day before the U.S. House passed the health care bill.
BEST CHANCE TO BEAT OBAMA
When Republicans were asked which of the same list of potential candidates had the best chance of defeating President Obama in 2012, Romney captured 42 percent to Huckabee's 14 percent, Palin's 11 percent, and Gingrich's 10 percent. Jeb Bush received 5 percent, Daniels 2 percent, and Thune 1 percent.