Marquette Law School Poll finds presidential and Senate races tied in WisconsinRomney and Thompson gaining ground, both races within one point
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2012/10/17/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-presidential-and-senate-races-tied-in-wisconsin/ Milwaukee, Wis. – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds the presidential race tied in Wisconsin, with President Barack Obama at 49 percent and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 48 percent among likely voters. The race for U.S. Senate is also a dead heat, with former Governor Tommy Thompson at 46 percent and Rep. Tammy Baldwin at 45 percent. Two weeks ago, before the first presidential debate, Obama held an 11-point lead and Baldwin was narrowly ahead by four percentage points. The new poll was conducted October 11-14, before the second presidential debate.
The impact of the first presidential debate remains clear more than a week after the event. Among those likely voters who watched the first debate, Romney has a 50-48 percent edge; yet among those who did not watch the debate, Obama leads 50-42 percent. Seventy-three percent of likely voters said that they watched the debate, while 27 percent said they did not watch.
“Rarely has a debate produced such a large movement in the polls. In September, President Obama held a steady lead, but now the race is a pure tossup, in large measure because of the first debate,” said Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin. “The remaining three weeks of the campaign, including reaction to the final debates, will tip the balance to one candidate or the other.”
The poll of both landline and cell phone users was conducted October 11-14. The November matchups, debate effects and candidate image questions are based on a sample of 870 likely voters and have a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Other results are based on 1007 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
Vice-presidential debate
The vice-presidential debate also appears to have affected the public images of Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan. Of those polled before the vice-presidential debate, Biden had a 49 percent favorable to 41 percent unfavorable rating, while those interviewed after the debate gave him a 44 percent favorable to 47 percent unfavorable evaluation. Ryan’s ratings among those polled before the debate stood at 46 percent favorable to 41 percent unfavorable. For those surveyed after the debate, his ratings were 50 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable. Of those who watched the debate, 42 percent thought Biden did the better job, while 51 percent thought Ryan did better.
Voters mostly thought that their own party’s candidate prevailed in the debate. Among debate watchers, 88 percent of Republicans thought Ryan did the better job, while 93 percent of Democrats saw Biden doing better. Independents thought Ryan did better, by a 53 percent to 39 percent margin over Biden.
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive independent statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. Running monthly through 2012, it provides a snapshot of voter attitudes from across the state on the gubernatorial recall election and the campaigns for president and U.S. Senate, in addition to gauging opinion on major policy questions.
The results of today’s poll were discussed at a session of “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” at Marquette Law School. Similar poll release events will be held at Marquette Law School throughout the year. A video of today’s session can be viewed at law.marquette.edu.
The poll interviewed 1007 registered Wisconsin voters by both landline and cell phone October 11-14, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points for the full sample. There are 870 “likely voters,” i.e., those who said they were certain to vote in the November elections, with a margin of error for this group being +/- 3.4 percentage points. The entire questionnaire, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at http://law.marquette.edu/poll.
